Nifty Prediction Today: Analyzing the 4th Straight Day of Losses as Volatility Spikes

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Date: December 29, 2025| Market Sentiment: Bearish / Cautious| India VIX: 9.72 (+6.22%)

Market Open and Starting Behavior: A Failed Recovery Attempt

The Indian equity markets started the final week of 2025 on a somber note. Despite a marginally positive opening, the Nifty Prediction Today was quickly overshadowed by selling pressure. The Nifty 50 opened at 26,063.35, up about 21 points, but the cheer was short-lived. Within the first hour of trade, the index hit an intraday high of 26,106.80 before the bears took total control.

The “Sell on Rise” mentality was evident as heavyweight IT and Consumer Durables stocks faced consistent liquidation. By noon, the index had slipped below the crucial 26,000 psychological mark, indicating that the year-end “Santa Rally” remains elusive for D-Street.

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Index Performance Table

Index	Open	High	Low	Close	Change (%)
Nifty 50	26,063.35	26,106.80	25,892.25	25,942.10	-0.38%
BSE Sensex	85,150.20	85,250.00	84,637.86	84,695.54	-0.41%
Bank Nifty	59,007.05	59,140.40	58,916.65	58,932.35	-0.13%
India VIX	9.15	9.77	9.05	9.72	+6.22%

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Key Takeaways from Today’s Session

• Four-Day Losing Streak: The Sensex and Nifty have now closed in the red for four consecutive sessions.
• Volatility Jump: India VIX surged over 6%, closing near 9.72, suggesting growing nervousness among traders.
• Sectoral Divergence: While Media and PSU Banks showed minor resilience, IT and Realty were the primary draggers.
• Rupee at New Lows: The Indian Rupee provisionally closed at 89.98 against the US Dollar, adding pressure on imported inflation.

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Deep Dive: Reasons Behind the Market Movement

The primary driver for today’s decline was the persistent outflow of foreign funds. FIIs have remained net sellers throughout December, choosing to move capital to other emerging markets or into the safety of the US Dollar ahead of the holiday break.

Secondly, the weakness in the Rupee has become a major pain point. As the INR nears the 90.00 mark, foreign investors become wary of currency depreciation eating into their equity returns. Additionally, weak cues from Asian peers and a lack of fresh domestic triggers led to thin trading volumes, making the market susceptible to sharp downward moves on low selling pressure.

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Top Gainers and Losers

Nifty 50 Gainers

• Tata Steel: +1.55% (Strong demand in metal space)
• Tata Consumer: +1.48% (Defensive buying in FMCG)
• Asian Paints: +1.10% (Value buying at lower levels)

Nifty 50 Losers

• Adani Ports: -2.22% (Heavy selling in infrastructure)
• HCL Tech: -1.81% (IT sector woes continue)
• Power Grid: -1.75% (Profit booking in utilities)

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Institutional Activity (FII & DII Data)

The tug-of-war between institutional giants continues. While DIIs are trying to provide a cushion, FII selling is overpowering the domestic liquidity.

• FII Net Value (Cash): -₹317.56 Crore (Provisional)
• DII Net Value (Cash): +₹2,643.80 Crore (Provisional)

Note: While the net FII number appears lower today, the aggressive selling in Index Futures (over ₹1,100 Cr) suggests a bearish hedge by global funds.

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Nifty Prediction Today: Outlook for Tomorrow (Dec 30)

Technically, the Nifty has formed a bearish candle on the daily chart with a long upper shadow, indicating that every recovery attempt is being sold. The index is now hovering near its 20-day EMA.

Key Support Levels: 25,880 and 25,800.

Key Resistance Levels: 26,050 and 26,120.

If the Nifty fails to reclaim the 26,000 mark in the first hour tomorrow, we might see a slide towards 25,750 as year-end profit-taking intensifies.

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Trading Strategy for Tomorrow

• For Bullish Traders: Wait for a decisive close above 26,050. Target 26,180 with a strict stop loss at 25,980.
• For Bearish Traders: If Nifty breaks 25,900, shorting can be considered for a target of 25,820/25,780.
• Bank Nifty Strategy: The banking index is relatively stronger. A “Buy on Dips” strategy near 58,800 might work, provided 58,700 is held on a closing basis.

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Conclusion & Expert View

The market is currently in a “Correction Mode” disguised as consolidation. The sharp spike in India VIX is a warning sign that the quiet period is over, and we might see higher volatility in the coming days. Investors should avoid catching “falling knives” in the IT and Realty sectors until a clear reversal is seen. Focus on high-dividend PSU banks and Metal stocks which are showing relative strength.

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FAQ: Frequently Asked Questions

1. Why is the Nifty falling despite DII buying?

DII buying is often gradual and aimed at long-term accumulation, whereas FII selling in the derivatives segment creates immediate downward pressure on the index.

2. What is the significance of India VIX rising today?

A rise in India VIX indicates that traders expect higher price swings. When VIX rises along with a falling market, it reflects increasing fear and uncertainty.

3. Is 26,000 a strong support for Nifty?

Psychologically, yes. However, technically, the Nifty has closed below it today. The real support now lies at the 25,880 level.

Would you like me to analyze any specific stock from today’s loser list for a potential reversal?

Nifty Prediction Today| Share Market News| Sensex Today| Bank Nifty Levels| India VIX| FII DII Data| Stock Market Analysis| Intraday Trading Strategy

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Also View:

• Lesson 14: Short Selling & Margin Trading
• Lesson 15: Settlement System: How Your Trade Becomes Real Money and Shares

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