Indian Stock Market Today : Sensex & Nifty End Lower on Bank Selling (31 October 2025)

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The Indian stock market closed lower on Friday, October 31 2025, weighed by weakness in private-sector banks, continued foreign institutional investor (FII) outflows, and soft global cues. Despite a strong start to the week, profit-booking dominated the final session of October as participants opted for caution ahead of the new month and macro data releases.

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1️⃣ Market Highlights

• BSE Sensex: 83,938.71 (-465.8 pts / -0.55 %)
• NSE Nifty 50: 25,722.10 (-155.75 pts / -0.60 %)
• Market Breadth: Decliners outnumbered advancers by roughly 3:1
• Volatility Index (VIX): edged up nearly 2 % indicating nervousness
• Turnover: Moderate — led by banks, auto and energy stocks

Broader indices and mid-caps also softened, though the correction remained orderly without panic-selling.

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2️⃣ Macro Backdrop and Global Cues

Global risk sentiment remained fragile. Overnight, US indices closed mixed ahead of key tech earnings and policy speeches. The US dollar index hovered near multi-week highs, pressuring emerging-market currencies including the INR. Crude prices continued their slide with Brent around $64 per barrel — a third consecutive monthly decline — helping India’s import bill but signalling sluggish global demand.

Asian markets were largely lower as well, following weak Chinese PMI figures. The combination of a strong dollar, rising bond yields and subdued commodity demand kept risk-assets under pressure.

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3️⃣ Domestic Macro Snapshot

• USD/INR: 88.69 ( day high 88.76 )
• India 10-Year G-Sec Yield: 6.54 – 6.58 %
• Crude Oil: Brent ~ $64.3 / bbl
• FII Activity: Net outflow on 30 Oct ≈ ₹3,000 crore
• DII Activity: Net buyer ≈ ₹2,000 crore

The persistent FII selling streak has become a major drag for indices. Domestic institutions provided some support but could not fully offset the foreign outflows.

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4️⃣ Sector Performance

🏦 Banking and Financials

Private banks led the decline. ICICI Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Axis Bank shed 1–3 % each. Profit-booking after recent gains and concerns over margin compression hurt sentiment.
Public-sector banks, meanwhile, outperformed slightly as investors preferred balance-sheet stability and higher government visibility.

⚡ Energy & Commodities

Oil marketing companies and utilities held steady as lower crude reduces input costs. ONGC and Coal India were flat to positive. Metal stocks faced mild selling following weak Chinese data.

💻 Information Technology

IT stocks saw sideways moves. Infosys and TCS ended flat as investors await Q3 guidance on AI-driven demand. The INR weakness is a partial cushion for exporters.

🛒 FMCG and Consumer

Defensive buying in HUL and Nestlé India limited index losses. Rural demand remains steady as food inflation eases.

🚗 Automobile

Auto stocks witnessed mixed action ahead of monthly sales data. Maruti declined while Tata Motors ended positive on EV pipeline updates.

🏗️ Infra and Real Estate

High bond yields tempered gains for developers. Cement names were marginally lower amid cost concerns.

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5️⃣ Top Gainers and Losers (Indicative)

Gainers: Power Grid Corp, NTPC, Coal India, Tata Power, Tech Mahindra
Losers: Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Titan

The contrast underscores rotation toward defensive utilities and away from private financials.

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6️⃣ FII & DII Flow Analysis

Foreign investors have been net sellers through most of October. Cumulative monthly outflow is estimated above ₹14,000 crore. Reasons include global yield differentials, US Fed’s tight stance, and portfolio rebalancing.

Domestic institutions (insurance funds, mutual funds) have countered with steady inflows driven by SIP subscriptions. However, in thin liquidity sessions, FII selling pressure still dominates index moves.

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7️⃣ Currency & Bond Market Update

The rupee’s depreciation near ₹88.70 reflects broad dollar strength rather than India-specific stress. Traders expect RBI intervention to curb excess volatility. Bond yields rose marginally as investors priced in higher borrowing supply for FY26.

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8️⃣ Corporate Developments to Watch

• Earnings Season: Next week kicks off results from large IT and auto firms. Margins and commentary on rural demand will be key.
• M&A Buzz: Several mid-cap renewable players exploring strategic partnerships for capital infusion.
• Regulatory: RBI expected to release updated guidelines for digital lending platforms soon.
• Dividend Watch: Coal India and HCL Tech investors await interim dividend confirmation in early November.

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9️⃣ Technical View on Indices

• Nifty Support: 25,650 – 25,700
• Nifty Resistance: 25,950 – 26,000
• Sensex Support: 83,800
• Sensex Resistance: 84,600

The pattern suggests a short-term consolidation phase. A close below 25,650 may invite further selling toward 25,400, while sustained trade above 26,000 could reignite momentum.

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🔟 Outlook for Tomorrow (Nov 1 2025 Session)

Market tone remains cautious. If global futures stabilize and oil stays below $65, indices could see a technical rebound. Participants should monitor:

• Overnight US tech results impact on Nasdaq
• FII activity in first half of session
• Rupee movement versus USD
• Bank earnings and credit-growth updates

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🌟 Top 5 Stocks to Watch Tomorrow

1. ICICI Bank: Testing critical support zone; reversal possible if volume spike appears.
2. Power Grid Corp: Defensive play with strong cash flows — watch for follow-through buying.
3. Infosys: Rupee tailwind could boost export optimism.
4. Coal India: Dividend expectation likely to keep sentiment positive.
5. Tata Motors: EV news-flow and monthly sales numbers to drive volatility.

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🔮 Medium-Term Market View

Despite short-term volatility, India remains structurally strong: robust domestic consumption, healthy banking system, and continuing infrastructure investment. Analysts expect FY26 earnings growth near 12–14 %. Valuations are rich but not excessive given India’s relative macro stability.

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⚠️ Risks to Watch

• Renewed FII selling if global bond yields rise further.
• Any upside surprise in inflation data could spook bond and equity markets.
• Corporate earnings misses in banks or IT could trigger index pressure.
• Sharp currency volatility beyond ₹89 per USD may invite RBI action.

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💡 Investment Takeaways

• Stick to quality large caps with strong cash flows.
• Use dips to accumulate defensive sectors like utilities and PSU banks.
• Traders can play short-term range with tight stop-losses.
• Long-term investors should stay invested in structural themes: renewables, digital transformation, EV ecosystem, and infrastructure development.

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🧾 Conclusion

October 31 marked a cautious close for Indian equities. Sensex and Nifty slipped moderately as investors booked profits in banks and awaited fresh global signals. While FII outflows keep sentiment subdued, domestic fundamentals remain sound. If corporate earnings surprise positively and global yields stabilize, a renewed up-move cannot be ruled out in November.

For now, the market appears to be taking a healthy pause — a breather in a long-term uptrend that continues to favor India among emerging markets.

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by Mirae Asset (m,Stock)